Kenya: ODM Kenya Rules Out Consensus

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Kenya: ODM Kenya Rules Out Consensus

The East African Standard (Nairobi)

February 10, 2007
Posted to the web February 11, 2007

Dennis Onyango
Nairobi

The doors this week appeared shut on any possibility that the Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya could pick a presidential candidate by consensus.

At the same time, ODM Kenya vice- chairman and Team Leader Mr Mutula Kilonzo, who is the party's leading legal adviser, asked the presidential hopefuls and their supporters to "read and understand" the meaning of winning by a simple majority.
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"If winning was just by simple arithmetic, consensus would have come first. Some aspirants appear to have read and understood this and have hit the road," Kilonzo said.

The ODM Kenya Team Leader asked the hopefuls to forget the thinking that they could win the ticket by simply mobilising tribal and regional votes. ODM-Kenya will pick its presidential candidate through a delegate system where 2,000 voters from every constituency will vote for their ideal candidate.

That makes the number of voters in the primaries to 420,000 delegates to pick the ODM-Kenya candidate.

On Saturday, Kilonzo said the winner of the ODM-Kenya ticket would have to get at least 210,001 votes to be declared the candidate.

"It is not the person with the highest number of votes who will be declared the winner. It is the person with at least 210,001 votes. That is what we mean by a simple majority. No candidate can get that from his or her tribe or region," Kilonzo said.

Party appears not to be reading from same script

With mounting fears that the voting system the ODM Kenya agreed on favoured those from regions with more constituencies, Mutula said both the aspirants and supporters might have misinterpreted the requirements for winning the ticket.

"When we talk of simple majority, we are talking of 50 per cent-plus votes. We want the candidate to command the respect and support of Kenyans across the country, not just that of their tribes. The candidate we are looking for will have to win at least 210,001-plus of the 420,000 votes," he said.

Consensus, which aspirants Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and William Ruto have disowned, will come in after the voting, and only if there is no candidate with at least 51 per cent.

But the party appears not to be reading from the same script on this issue.

At the launch of Dr Julia Ojiambo's vision on Thursday, Raila emphasised the need for the party to "face democracy" and go to the polls to nominate its presidential candidate instead of picking it by consensus.

At the same function, the party's chairman, Mr Henry Kosgey said ODM-Kenya was seriously exploring consensus as a means of picking its candidate.

Earlier, Emuhaya MP Mr Kenneth Marende, who chaired the sub-committee on nomination rules said consensus was the first option his committee presented and implored the aspirants to embrace it.

Consensus was to come after nomination

Ruto, on the other hand, said the idea of 50 per cent-plus, was discussed and agreed on initially. At that time, there was a provision for a run-off between the first two aspirants.

But in Naivasha, the 50 per cent-plus was thrown out, together with the requirement for a run-off. He said the understanding in Naivasha was that simple majority meant any of the candidates who score the highest number of votes, regardless of whether it is above 50 per cent.

"Whatever way, whether it is 50 per cent- plus or just whoever leads, I am prepared. What I don't want is pre-poll consensus," Ruto said.

The MP said he has hit the campaign trail and is embarking on Western Province next week, after the extensive tour of the Coast.

But on Saturday, Mutula said "being the technical person," he had paid attention to details and reminded the aspirants that consensus was an option only if none of them secured a simple majority.
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In the announcement the party made at the end of the Naivasha III plenary last month, consensus was to come immediately after nomination.

The party announced at the plenary that it would pick its presidential nominee by having 2,000 presidential nomination delegates from each constituency voting for the aspirants by secret ballot.

The party announced, "The presidential nominee shall be the candidate who receives a simple majority".

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That was immediately followed by a provision that "the party shall also explore the option of seeking the presidential candidate by consensus."

Fears that formula favours certain regions
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On Saturday, Kilonzo said the arrangement was deliberate.

"Consensus comes immediately after voting to accommodate the possibility that nobody may get 210,001 votes in the primaries. That is the consensus we are talking about. By talking consensus at this stage, people are focusing on paragraph six of the resolutions and ignoring paragraph five, which recommends voting and was to get priority," Kilonzo said.

"By the time we are through with the ballot, those candidates who thought they were strong and those who were considered weak will know where they belong. They will then sober up and consensus talks can begin if none emerges the outright winner," he added.

Kilonzo said the tally would also show where the candidates got most of their votes from and asked the aspirants not to bog down the party with tribal votes.

There has been fear that the formula for picking the ODM candidate would favour those from regions with more constituencies and those from large tribes.

There is also the fear that ODM, while pushing for the winning candidate in the General Election should win by 50 per cent-plus votes, could pick a leader who wins by virtue of regional voting.

There also remains the concern that there should have been a way of allocating the number of delegates depending on the expected Orange vote in each constituency.

Issue was discussed but shelved

Both Mbita MP Otieno Kajwang', who sat on the committee on election nomination rules and Gachoka MP Mr Joseph Nyagah, said the issue was discussed but shelved because of controversies around it. Kajwang' also said consensus is out of the question until after the polls. He even said the party suspects the Government is infiltrating its ranks and planting the clamour for consensus to create divisions.

"Consensus has no formula. It has no rules and relies entirely on goodwill. Until one of the substantial candidates says he will back the other, there can be no consensus," Kajwang' said.

"Each of these candidate has supporters who will not agree that consensus favoured them. Kalonzo's supporters say he is the best, going by opinion polls. Mudavadi is being told he is a coward who left for Uhuru the other time so he must run to prove he is not. Raila's people say he has struggled and supported other people for too long. The people of Rift Valley are investing in Ruto and he has to carry on. Uhuru is a party chairman, so if you tell him not to run, it is like killing his party. Only a poll will help these people," Kajwang' said.

Other party leaders argue that consensus negotiated behind closed doors would give fringe candidates who have insignificant support equal weight with those the party really needs to win the poll.

The party considered giving each constituency delegates commensurate with support for ODM in the region. That would have been based most likely on referendum results. It was dismissed as exclusivist.

"The people of central Kenya felt it targeted Uhuru. They argued that the referendum results would not be an accurate measure for ODM support in a region because people voted for or against the Wako Draft for different reasons. Allocating delegates on the basis of referendum results made it obvious that Uhuru stood no chance," the Mbita MP said.

Alternative voting system

Former Constitution of Kenya Review Commission chairman Prof Yash Pal Ghai, currently in the country, said ODM-Kenya might also try an alternative voting system where delegates could pick up to three candidates at once.

"Delegates may be allowed to say, 'my first choice is Julia Ojiambo. But if I can't have her, my second would be Raila Odinga and my third William Ruto.' In the possibility of none garnering the required winning votes, those alternative votes could help the party decide," Ghai said.


Kilonzo, on the other hand, said the party had considered even that, but found it complex and potentially confusing.

"Alternative voting was considered, but it came out as too complex. If we succeed this time, we may use it in future," Kilonzo said.

"For now, I ask all the candidates to go around the country and market themselves and the party. Let them meet every opinion leader in every sub-location. We want these aspirants to go to every village and see where there is no water, hospitals or schools. Whoever cannot reach every sub-location should seriously consider forming an alliance. There is no consensus before the polls," he added.

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Not prepared for a run off

He asked the ODM-K aspirants to study the Chama cha Mapinduzi campaigns that produced Mr Jakaya Kikwete as presidential candidate.
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"Kikwete collapsed during the campaigns for the party's ticket. He was not sick. He was just exhausted. Let our aspirants prepare for that."

ODM-Kenya, Kilonzo said, is not prepared for a run off between aspirants if none secures 210,001 votes. They will embark on consensus instead.

"We don't want to expose our candidates to extreme financial and mental stress through early competition. We don't waste funds in primaries when we know our opponents have accumulated a lot. But initial campaigns are a must."

Campaigns by individual presidential aspirants, he said, has "worked wonders" for the party, and he asked each aspirant to hit the road.

"We only launched this party in August last year. Yet there is no part of this country that does not know ODM-Kenya. With every passing day, it gets very hard for any to leave. I don't expect an aspirant who was in Malindi this month saying he is in ODM-Kenya to return there in June saying he is in another party. No one will take such a person seriously. So every aspirant must reach out," Kilonzo said.

Copyright © 2007 The East African Standard